The Value View Gold Report
The premier newsletter on Gold. Published monthly and delivered to you by email.
We cover Gold in U.S. $, Canadian $, Euros, British Pounds, Chinese Yuan, and Indian Rupee.
Analytical facts only, to aid you in buying Gold.

We are Bullish on Gold! We turned bullish in 2015 when most analysts were still bears!
OUR FORCAST IS NOW $GOLD AT $1,900-2,100 IN 2017.

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Recent web cast at this link:

Schmidt 21 January See Last Segment
READ: Ned's Random Gold Thoughts
can be found at the bottom.

Ned's Random Gold Thoughts

Our Basic Position is BULLISH!


25 January 2017

$Gold: $1,198
% Change Year Ago: + 7%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,267   -$ 69
Short-Term Oscillator:   15% Over Sold / Short-term Buy
Intermediate Oscillator: 49%   Neutral
Second Important Low(15 Dec 16)  $1,123
Bear Market Low(17 Dec 15)   $1,046

$Silver:   $16.95
% Change Year Ago: +17%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.9 -$1.05
Short-Term Oscillator: 31% Over Sold
Intermediate Oscillator:   53% Neutral

One can imagine the look on faces of traders this week. Spittle is running down
their chins, and eyes are red from staring at screens all day. Their dreams are
about to come true. The Trump rally is going to make them all rich. Already,
some are talking 21,000 and 25,000 on the DJIA. If dreams generated wealth,
all would already be rich. When emotional exuberance is driving a market, beware.

Gold, after some time of doing quite well, naturally responded to the equity
markets in Trump mania. As indicated above, the short-term oscillator is
moving to a buy signal. We generally prefer the intermediate oscillator as
short-term oscillator can change rapidly. That intermediate measure may give
a buy signal next week.

With equities up, Gold is still the bargain and best opportunity. Intraday high recently
was $1,220.70, kitco.com basis. Move above that price would draw money to Gold.
That said, we may need to trade sideways to down into next week.

Dollar trade is broken, and that should be supportive of Gold.


7 January 2017

$Gold: $1,172
% Change Year Ago: + 6%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,271   -$ 99
Short-Term Oscillator:   96% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 82%   Over Bought
Second Important Low(15 Dec 16)  $1,123
Bear Market Low(17 Dec 15)   $1,046

$Silver:   $16.45
% Change Year Ago: +15%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $18.0 -$1.55
Short-Term Oscillator: 96% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:   82% Over Bought

2017 Year-to-Date Ranked Returns:
GDXJ +12%
GDX +7%
SLV +4%
NASDAQ 100 +4%
GLD +2%
S&P 500 +2%

If one listens to the talking heads and Street strategists, one gets the impression
that Trump is going to make everyone rich. Only question to be answered is
which company and stock will be made the most rich by Trump. For you see,
all risk according to this group has been eliminated in the stock market. Reality
just might be something different. That type of thinking has always been dangerous.

With a third U.S. interest rate increase now expected, likely in March, risk in
the NASDAQ 100 continues to be -18%.  Pain U.S. equities should increase
throughout the year. With bonds already moving into a bear market,
Gold is the one asset with potential for the coming year.

Posted a new web cast above.

19 December 2016

$Gold: $1,139  
% Change Year Ago: + 7%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,277   -$138
Short-Term Oscillator:   20% Over Sold
Intermediate Oscillator:  22%   Over Sold
Buy signal remains in effect

$Silver:   $15.95
% Change Year Ago: +13%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.9 -$1.99
Short-Term Oscillator: 1% Over Sold!
Intermediate Oscillator:   39% Neutral, Moving to Over Sold

Most effective tool for managing your acquisition of Gold over time has been
the ratio of price of $Gold to the value of the S&P 500. Currently, that ratio
is 0.504. Last time that ratio was at that level was in 2007, when Gold
was rising from under $800.

That ratio, using data back to 1945, can be used to assess the probability
of that ratio rising. Or, probability that $Gold will perform better than U.S.
stock market.                
Probability = 77%

Only reasonable conclusion is that investors should own, buy, Gold and
sell U.S. stocks. Most vulnerable sector is the NASDAQ 100 leaders.


9 December 2016

$Gold: $1,165  
% Change Year Ago: + 9%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,280   -$115
Short-Term Oscillator:   37% Neutral
Intermediate Oscillator: 18%   Over Sold
Buy signal remains in effect

$Silver:   $17.0
                     % Change Year Ago: +21%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.9 -$0.90
Short-Term Oscillator: 87% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:   74% Neutral

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: + 9%
               NASDAQ 100: + 4%                    

Euphoria continues to support the Trump Rally. Value disparity between S&P 500
and $Gold is again at an extreme. Give the over valuation of US equity market
and under valuation of $Gold all that is required is some catalyst to send
US stocks lower and $Gold higher.

Quite likely that catalyst will be FOMC raising US interest rates on Wednesday,
14 December. Note the continuing poor performance of NASDAQ 100.
That sector extremely vulnerable to higher interest rates.

Trump Dollar Rally already rolling over.

In short, Gold is a buy regardless of what FOMC does.
Second, the major stocks dominating the NASDAQ 100 should be SOLD.

We have updated both web casts at the top of the page, and both go into more detail.


8 November 2016

$Gold: $1,211  
% Change Year Ago: +12%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,285   -$ 74
Short-Term Oscillator:    6%   Over Sold
Intermediate Oscillator:   9%   Over Sold
Buy signal in effect

$Silver:   $16.6
% Change Year Ago: +16%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.8 -$1.20
Short-Term Oscillator: 3% Over Sold
Intermediate Oscillator:   20%   Over Sold
Buy signal on Tuesday if price remains near that a present

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: + 7%
NASDAQ 100: + 6%                    

We of course do not like seeing price of Gold and Silver decline. However,
if short-term price weakness is the price to be paid for Trump winning US
presidency, that is one we gladly pay. However, the Trump Dollar Rally has
been pushed to a nonsensical extreme.

Teenage traders are running rampant through foreign currency markets. With
Trump not taking office till late January, his policies will have no impact on
economic growth till some time late in 2017. Sell off in foreign currencies has
now made the U.S. dollar seriously over valued, and vulnerable to
a significant correction.

Attention now turns to 14 December when FOMC makes next interest rate
announcement. If no rate increase, dollar should decline and Gold should rise.
But more important is what happens if FOMC does raise US interest rates
by 25 basis points. That event, given the selling of Gold by immature traders,
is now a classic, “sell on the rumor, buy on the news” event.

In short, Gold is a buy regardless of what FOMC does.
Second, the major stocks dominating the NASDAQ 100 should be SOLD.

Updated samples linked above.


4 November 2016

$Gold: $1,303  
% Change Year Ago: +18%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,285   +$ 18
Short-Term Oscillator:    92%   Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:   90%   Over Bought

$Silver:   $18.4
% Change Year Ago: +23%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.7 +$0.70
Short-Term Oscillator: 73% Neutral
Intermediate Oscillator:   86%   Over Bought
            

Well, for once Clinton did something good. Street has been strong supporter
of her. Week ago Thursday, day before FBI letter, metals started to move higher
as Street lost confidence in her electability.  Since then the news has been negative
for Clinton, and basically ignored Trump.
          
Gold and Silver were both in need of a catalyst to move them higher as the
Street had positioned itself for certainty of Clinton win in the election. Suddenly,
some uncertainty arrived, and Trump now looks likely to win. Gold likes
uncertainty. Sliding of Clinton in polls further disappointed Street, moving both
Gold and Silver back above their 200-day moving averages. That $Gold finished
week above $1,300 is also encouraging. Short-term price to watch: $1,308

Further supporting Gold in months ahead is dismal U.S. stock market. Action
in AAPL and FB suggest that end to technology stock era has arrived.


21 October 2016

$Gold: $1,267
% Change Year Ago: + 9%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,280   -$ 13
Short-Term Oscillator:    84%   Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:   45%   Neutral

$Silver:   $17.50
% Change Year Ago: +11 %                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.6  -$0.1
Short-Term Oscillator: 61% Neutral
Intermediate Oscillator:   38%   Neutral

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: + 6%
             NASDAQ 100: +10%                     

Irrational selling of both Gold and Silver to their lows of early last week seems
to have been completed. Both now seem to be building bases that should allow
them to move higher as end of year approaches. All of this sell off was built on a
widespread belief that the FOMC will raise U.S. interest rates on 14th of December.

To date, no data on U.S. economy truly supports a move higher for U.S.
interest rates. Yellen’s recent comments support the idea that U.S. interest rates
probably will not be raised. Essentially what she said was that perhaps the U.S.
economy could continue to expand at current rates without an immediate
need to raise rates.

December, as we wrote in the October letter, is likely a critical turning
point for Gold. And, that turn is likely to be upward.

Note that as explained in October letter a 25 basis point rise in U.S. interest
rates implies as much as an 18% DECLINE for NASDAQ 100.


Recent web cast at this link:

Schmidt 8 December