The Value View Gold Report
The premier newsletter on Gold. Published monthly and delivered to you by email.
We cover Gold in U.S. $, Canadian $, Euros, British Pounds, Chinese Yuan, and Indian Rupee.
Analytical facts only, to aid you in buying Gold.

We are Bullish on Gold! We turned bullish in 2015 when most analysts were still bears!
OUR FORCAST IS NOW $GOLD AT $1,900-2,100 IN 2017.

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Recent web cast at this link:

Schmidt 5 December
READ: Ned's Random Gold Thoughts
can be found at the bottom.

Ned's Random Gold Thoughts

Our Basic Position is BULLISH!


9 December 2016

$Gold: $1,165  
% Change Year Ago: + 9%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,280   -$115
Short-Term Oscillator:   37% Neutral
Intermediate Oscillator: 18%   Over Sold
Buy signal remains in effect

$Silver:   $17.0
                        % Change Year Ago: +21%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.9 -$0.90
Short-Term Oscillator: 87% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:   74% Neutral

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: + 9%
                  NASDAQ 100: + 4%                    
   
Euphoria continues to support the Trump Rally. Value disparity between S&P 500
and $Gold is again at an extreme. Give the over valuation of US equity market
and under valuation of $Gold all that is required is some catalyst to send
US stocks lower and $Gold higher.

Quite likely that catalyst will be FOMC raising US interest rates on Wednesday,
14 December. Note the continuing poor performance of NASDAQ 100.
That sector extremely vulnerable to higher interest rates.

Trump Dollar Rally already rolling over.

In short, Gold is a buy regardless of what FOMC does.
Second, the major stocks dominating the NASDAQ 100 should be SOLD.

We have updated both web casts at the top of the page, and both go into more detail.



8 November 2016

$Gold: $1,211  
% Change Year Ago: +12%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,285   -$ 74
Short-Term Oscillator:    6%   Over Sold
Intermediate Oscillator:   9%   Over Sold
Buy signal in effect

$Silver:   $16.6
% Change Year Ago: +16%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.8 -$1.20
Short-Term Oscillator: 3% Over Sold
Intermediate Oscillator:   20%   Over Sold
Buy signal on Tuesday if price remains near that a present

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: + 7%
NASDAQ 100: + 6%                    
  
We of course do not like seeing price of Gold and Silver decline. However,
if short-term price weakness is the price to be paid for Trump winning US
presidency, that is one we gladly pay. However, the Trump Dollar Rally has
been pushed to a nonsensical extreme.

Teenage traders are running rampant through foreign currency markets. With
Trump not taking office till late January, his policies will have no impact on
economic growth till some time late in 2017. Sell off in foreign currencies has
now made the U.S. dollar seriously over valued, and vulnerable to
a significant correction.

Attention now turns to 14 December when FOMC makes next interest rate
announcement. If no rate increase, dollar should decline and Gold should rise.
But more important is what happens if FOMC does raise US interest rates
by 25 basis points. That event, given the selling of Gold by immature traders,
is now a classic, “sell on the rumor, buy on the news” event.

In short, Gold is a buy regardless of what FOMC does.
Second, the major stocks dominating the NASDAQ 100 should be SOLD.

Updated samples linked above.


4 November 2016

$Gold: $1,303  
% Change Year Ago: +18%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,285   +$ 18
Short-Term Oscillator:    92%   Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:   90%   Over Bought

$Silver:   $18.4
% Change Year Ago: +23%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.7 +$0.70
Short-Term Oscillator: 73% Neutral
Intermediate Oscillator:   86%   Over Bought
            
 
Well, for once Clinton did something good. Street has been strong supporter
of her. Week ago Thursday, day before FBI letter, metals started to move higher
as Street lost confidence in her electability.  Since then the news has been negative
for Clinton, and basically ignored Trump.
             
Gold and Silver were both in need of a catalyst to move them higher as the
Street had positioned itself for certainty of Clinton win in the election. Suddenly,
some uncertainty arrived, and Trump now looks likely to win. Gold likes
uncertainty. Sliding of Clinton in polls further disappointed Street, moving both
Gold and Silver back above their 200-day moving averages. That $Gold finished
week above $1,300 is also encouraging. Short-term price to watch: $1,308

Further supporting Gold in months ahead is dismal U.S. stock market. Action
in AAPL and FB suggest that end to technology stock era has arrived.


21 October 2016

$Gold: $1,267
% Change Year Ago: + 9%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,280   -$ 13
Short-Term Oscillator:    84%   Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:   45%   Neutral

$Silver:   $17.50
% Change Year Ago: +11 %                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.6  -$0.1
Short-Term Oscillator: 61% Neutral
Intermediate Oscillator:   38%   Neutral

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: + 6%
                NASDAQ 100: +10%                     

Irrational selling of both Gold and Silver to their lows of early last week seems
to have been completed. Both now seem to be building bases that should allow
them to move higher as end of year approaches. All of this sell off was built on a
widespread belief that the FOMC will raise U.S. interest rates on 14th of December.

To date, no data on U.S. economy truly supports a move higher for U.S.
interest rates. Yellen’s recent comments support the idea that U.S. interest rates
probably will not be raised. Essentially what she said was that perhaps the U.S.
economy could continue to expand at current rates without an immediate
need to raise rates.

December, as we wrote in the October letter, is likely a critical turning
point for Gold. And, that turn is likely to be upward.

Note that as explained in October letter a 25 basis point rise in U.S. interest
rates implies as much as an 18% DECLINE for NASDAQ 100.


16 October 2016
After a busy schedule of writing, recording, and a hurrican interruption
we should be back on schedule. in short, Gold and Silver are deeply over sold
and can be bought. Situation exists in all currencies with exception of
British pound. Mailed October issue out yesterday. Message was that
a lot of factors suggest that December could be a major turning point for
metals.  We have a posted a new web cast at the top of the page.

We also did our first interview with Korelin Economics. Did two segments,
one of Gold and another on Agriculture. This link will take you to them:
Schmidt with Korelin Economics


8 September 2016

$Gold: $1,344
% Change Year Ago: +21%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,247   +$ 97
Short-Term Oscillator:    92%   Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:   59%   Neutral

$Silver:   $19.70
% Change Year Ago: +35 %                        
200-Day Moving Average: $16.9   +$2.8
Short-Term Oscillator:  88%  Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:   67%   Slightly Over Bought

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: +11%
                   ASDAQ 100: +12%                     
TSLA -20%
AAPL - 6%

Last buy signal on $Gold was issued was on 25 August as $Gold was trading
below $1,320. At that time Street was still living fantasy of FOMC raising
U.S. interest rates at the September meeting. Then the miserable U.S. labor
report was issued. It was Bad. Then this week the survey for service industries
was released, and it was bad too. FOMC is not going to raise rates in September
and no meeting in October. So, dollar was hammered this week, and Gold rose.  

Intra day on $Gold $1,376. Move through that level would set Gold up to move higher.
  
$Silver is back to having trouble with $20 level. Only a matter of time before $20
becomes a hard floor for $Silver. Only restraint on Silver is the extremely high return
this past year, which may be scaring off some. Intra day high for $Silver roughly
$20.84. Should it hit $21 new up leg will likely start.                

Web cast at top of page has been updated.


19 August 2016

$Gold: $1,345
% Change Year Ago: +17%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,223   +$122
Short-Term Oscillator:    48%   Neutral
Intermediate Oscillator:   39%   Neutral

$Silver:   $19.30
% Change Year Ago: +24 %
200-Day Moving Average: $16.4   +$2.89
Short-Term Oscillator: 8%   Oversold Buy Signal
Intermediate Oscillator:   11%   Oversold Buy signal

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: +5%
                      NASDAQ 100: +7%                      
TSLA -12%
AAPL - 5%

In August letter, which came out on Monday, we thought that both $Gold and $Silver
would give buy signals this weeks. Gold bounced, and failed to do deliver. However,
Silver continues over sold and buy signal continues.
 
Investors seem to continue somewhat fixated on possibility of a U.S. interest rate
increase. Given the frailty of the economic data and the political situation in the U.S., a
rate increase in the U.S. prior to January is highly unlikely. What is baffling is that
despite this worry investors continue to chase the nonsense which dominates the
NASDAQ 100. And we add, the dollar is breaking down which suggests some are
starting to give up on a rate increase anytime soon. And yes, all this does
sound a little confused. But, when did Street last make sense?

With U.S. not likely to raise rates till the new year, the case for the U.S. dollars is in
shamble which makes Gold and Silver extremely attractive at these prices.



 
Recent web cast at this link:

Schmidt 8 December